Imagine Before You Decide: Episodic Simulation Increases the Likelihood of Choosing the Simulated Option

Episodic simulation—the act of projecting oneself into the future—affects people’s thoughts, feelings, and behaviors. Across six studies, we tested the possibility that simulation affects decisions by making people more likely to choose options they simulate. Study 1 first established a correlation between how much people naturally simulated an option for an upcoming personal decision over one week and the likelihood that they would choose that option. Studies 2a and 2b demonstrated that simulation caused a small but significant increase in the likelihood a person would choose the simulated option for their personal decision relative to a non-simulated option. Finally, Studies 3, 4a, and 4b, revealed that simulation shapes decisions in controlled laboratory experiments where options were matched on initial preference. This work suggests that episodic simulation may contribute to a feedback loop, reinforcing preferences by making people more likely to choose options they simulate.