The Bad Science Paper: Addressing the Accumulation of Unverifiable Science

In this paper, we explore the trajectory of the accumulation of unverifiable science in the literature under a variety of scenarios. We argue that without major changes in publication trends and research rigor, our ability to leverage science to solve humanity’s problems will be greatly compromised. We show that the accumulation of unverifiable science will soon reach a tipping point in which the rate of accumulation will far exceed our ability to correct the literature within practical constraints. Our models, while simplistic, are analogous to models of climate change, which warn of serious consequences if the current state of affairs is left unchecked. The simulation results indicate that addressing the accumulation of unverifiable science will require a combination of improving replicability rates (i.e. rigor), reducing research ’emissions’ (fewer articles but of better quality), and improved efforts to‘capture’ seriously flawed published papers.