Dynamic Landscape of Institutional Trust: Trust in Presidency Spills Over to Scientists, Media, and Public Institutions

How does public trust in different institutions evolve following a sharp change in trust in one institution? Leveraging a quota-matched longitudinal dataset of US respondents (N=26,423) collected across six waves (April’20 to January’23), we observe a major shift in partisans’ trust in the presidency after the 2020 US presidential election: Democrats gained and Republicans lost trust in the presidency. Time-lagged analyses show these changes “spill over” to trust in a wide range of other institutions not directly affected by the transition, reshaping the trust landscape for up to a year. Those who gained trust in the presidency (Democrats) later expressed elevated trust in public institutions, scientists, and the media, while those who lost trust (Republicans) expressed lower trust in these institutions, reflecting positive spillover. Republicans also showed negative spillover: reduced trust in the presidency was partially offset by increased trust in the police and personal networks. A proposed network model explains both positive and negative spillover patterns. Our findings suggest that political events can trigger wide-ranging trust cascades. Therefore, restoring trust in key institutions may bolster trust more broadly to other related institutions, mitigating the destabilizing effects of political perturbations.