Dispositional, Relational, and Cultural Predictors of Intimate Partner Violence: A Two-Wave Study in Brazil and the United Kingdom

Periods of widespread societal stress, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can significantly disrupt intimate relationships and elevate the risk of Intimate Partner Violence (IPV). This longitudinal study investigates how stress-related vulnerabilities and relationship dynamics contribute to psychological, physical, and sexual IPV victimisation in Brazil and the United Kingdom (UK). Drawing on the Vulnerability-Stress-Adaptation (VSA) model, we examined how individual differences (e.g., attachment orientation), mate-retention tactics (benefit-provisioning and cost-inflicting strategies), and COVID-19-related-stressors (e.g., impact, uncertainty) predict IPV over time (i.e., at two time points, one month apart). Findings revealed that all forms of IPV decreased over time but were more prevalent in the UK than in Brazil. COVID-19 uncertainty and the use of cost-inflicting mate-retention strategies were positively associated with IPV, particularly in the UK. Country significantly moderated several associations: avoidant attachment and cost-inflicting strategies were positively linked to IPV in Brazil, but negatively or weakly associated in the UK. Similarly, COVID-19 uncertainty predicted IPV more strongly in the UK during Wave 1, while in Brazil the associations persisted across both waves. These results highlight the need for context-sensitive IPV interventions and show how interpersonal vulnerabilities interact with societal stress to affect relationship harm across cultures.