The Explicit Anchor: How Inferential Reasoning Mimics Introspective Access in Implicit Evaluation Prediction

Do individuals possess introspective access to their implicit evaluations? Although recent research shows that people can often predict their scores on indirect measures, it remains unclear whether this effect reflects genuine introspection or inferential reasoning. We tested an anchoring-and-adjustment account, proposing that individuals predict implicit evaluations by anchoring on accessible explicit evaluations and then adjusting based on available information, such as cultural knowledge. Across three experiments (N = 3,182), we used a relational evaluative conditioning paradigm with novel nonwords to isolate explicit evaluations as the primary source for inference. Manipulating the align-ment between explicit and implicit evaluations, between or within participants, yielded consistent support for the anchoring-and-adjustment hypothesis. Predictions were accurate only when explicit evaluations provided a valid cue; when the two dissociated, accuracy fell systematically below chance. These findings suggest that knowledge of one’s implicit evaluations is dominantly derived from explicit cues rather than discovered through direct introspection.