Transforming Socotra: A Global Framework for Climate-resilient, Data-informed Conservation in High-risk Island Ecosystems

Socotra Island, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that is renowned for its unparalleled biodiversity and wide endemism, is under threat from escalating challenges emanating from climate change, limited funding, and fragmented governance structures. This research presents a robust, data-driven solution that includes state-of-the-art geographic information system (GIS) analysis, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and sophisticated regression modeling. Our method quantifies Socotra's current ecological and socioeconomic position relative to established island sustainability templates, including Palau, the Maldives, Costa Rica, the Galapagos, and Seychelles. Findings indicate that Socotra's conservation is well behind its contemporaries, with merely 10% of its land being conserved and tourism only 2% of its gross domestic product (GDP). It was revealed through a high positive correlation (r = 0.78, p < 0.01) between biodiversity outcomes and conservation funding, while greater investment remains an imperative. The framework promoted innovative alternatives such as debt-for-nature swaps, an aggressive 30% conservation target, and ecotourism under the impetus of community initiative as sustainable development options. With the background of increasing geopolitical complexities, the present study offers an elastic and extensible model to facilitate resilience in vulnerable island communities with the development of organized local governance, the use of sophisticated geospatial approaches, and the inclusion of participatory climate adaptation measures. This study not only closes a significant knowledge gap in existing literature on integrated conservation strategies for geopolitically sensitive regions but also places Socotra as a pivotal case study for reconsidering world paradigms of sustainability.