Floods, Facts, and Fictions: Numbers and Narratives Behind Bangladesh’s 2024 Regional Floods

The August 2024 regional floods in Bangladesh, occurring shortly after a major political upheaval, were among the most severe in recent history, displacing millions and causing extensive damage. This paper examines both the scientific and social dimensions of this disaster by exploring the natural drivers that led to the flooding and the sociopolitical context that caused rumors to spread that the floods were far from natural. We begin with a climatic and hydrological analysis that provides an objective explanation of the flood’s severity based on a convergence of intensified monsoon rainfall, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and a repositioned jet stream. We then leverage misinformation studies to explain the rapid spread of misleading narratives in the wake of the floods, including allegations of deliberate upstream dam releases by India. Our findings highlight that effective flood preparedness, response, and recovery require not only a scientific grasp of the “numbers” that explain natural drivers but also a nuanced understanding of the “narratives” that shape public perception and action, whether constructive or detrimental. Using the notion of engineering diplomacy, we argue that the mutual acknowledgment of common interests and a focus on collaborative, practical projects can lead to progress on immediate flood management needs while creating the enabling conditions for broader cooperation between transboundary nations like India and Bangladesh. We briefly examine the existing approaches for flood management between the two countries and suggest several tangible pilot projects and initiatives. In exploring both the scientific and social dimensions of the 2024 floods, this paper highlights a critical gap in common approaches to flood preparedness, response, and recovery, emphasizing the need for collaboration and trust-building to transform natural hazards into opportunities for sustainable action. The proposed coordinated and mutually beneficial strategies using the notion of engineering diplomacy have the potential to ensure future natural hazards do not lead to national disasters.