Knowledge for ambitious, integrated, value-explicit and just collective actions towards global biodiversity targets

Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) agreed upon goals and targets for biodiversity in the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF). The success of the GBF depends on the collective actions of the Parties, i.e. member states, to the CBD. Essential challenges in this context include ensuring that efforts across Parties are sufficient to collectively meet global ambitions, are integrated across biodiversity and other sustainability dimensions, and are just and value-explicit. In this perspective, we lay out how scenario- and model-based research can support this process. We describe how designing scenario narratives and quantifying different aspects of these narratives, specifically, target downscaling and narrative-specific modelling, combined with evaluating planned and implemented actions towards the GBF, can create locally relevant knowledge to help address these challenges and support a successful GBF. We highlight the importance of co-producing such knowledge and identify potential entry points for disseminating the outcomes at the science-policy interface, informing relevant national and global biodiversity governance.