The Socioeconomic Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Phragmites australis in the New Jersey Meadowlands

Sea level rise is one of the most alarming impacts of climate change and is projected to have devastating economic consequences for coastal communities such as increased flood damage, lost economic productivity, and decreased property values. To measure this impact in the New Jersey Meadowlands, an urban estuary ecosystem, I used a digital elevation model (DEM) to create inundation maps modeling 1, 2, and 3 ft of SLR. The DEM was combined with real estate and land use maps to assess the value of properties impacted by SLR and to identify the impacted economic sectors. Our nearest neighbor analysis revealed a negative correlation between the distance of properties of the nearest waterbody and their sale prices. Our modeling efforts indicate that the Meadowlands area will be greatly impacted by inundation from SLR with projected at-risk real-estate ranging between $1.7 – 4.3 billion between the years 2050 and 2130. Additionally, as sea levels rise, the proportion of commercial, industrial, and residential areas affected increases relative to the proportion of forests, wetlands, and open areas affected. These insights point to the severity of potential SLR impacts on the New Jersey coastal economy. It is crucial that decision-makers in the Meadowlands and beyond integrate climate change impacts, particularly SLR, into development and infrastructure planning to avoid these severe economic consequences.