Structural Transformation, Energy Intensity, and GHG Emissions in East Africa: Implications for Green Development

This paper dissected the intricate drivers of per-capita greenhouse gas emissions across East Africa, with a laser focus on the dynamics of sectoral shifts in synergy with the shockwaves of energy consumption for a time period of 1993 to 2022. The study engaged a balanced panel of five East African countries which are Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda. The balanced panel was designed by combining EDGAR’s IPCC published greenhouse gases data with salient macro-economic variables and indicators harvested from World Bank’s WDI data. The research revealed how fixed and random effect models coherently synergize with common correlated effects (CCE) estimators and cross-sectional augmented ARDL (CS-ARDL) to x-ray the intricate nexus of cross-sectoral feedbacks while informing of the short-run and long-run impacts. The outcome of this research clearly revealed that per-capita GDP is the primary driver of emissions in the region, with elasticities of 0.7–0.8. Furthermore, it was revealed that per-capita energy usage has a strongly positive effect (elasticity ≈ 0.42). In the same vein, trade openness mitigates the intensity of emissions when heterogeneity is controlled for. Moreover, sectoral composition and urbanization indirectly matter by producing effects on growth and energy demand. The research conducted cross-sectional dependence tests which affirmed strong regional spillovers, thereby emphasizing the need for the East African block to adopt sustainable energy and climate strategies. The findings of this research safely concluded that without major investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and climate-friendly industrial transition, the East African region is bound to be entrapped into an emissions-intensive growth path. Meanwhile, the early adoption of climate-friendly technologies and regional sustainability efforts offers viable prospects to decouple growth from emissions at an earlier stage of development with hope for a resounding success that is uncommon. ​