Recent rise of water levels of Lake Nakuru, Kenya: Unraveling the Changing Precipitation Regime and its Climatic Drivers

The Kenyan Rift Valley has experienced an abrupt and significant rise in its lake levels since 2010, followed by a more rapid rise since 2020. This paper examines the dynamic changes in precipitation patterns and their climatic drivers in the Kenyan Rift Valley region from 1981 to 2021, focusing on Lake Nakuru. Notably, in 2010, a pivotal change point in precipitation aligns with the rising water levels of Lake Nakuru. Using an atmospheric moisture tracking model, our study reveals that this transformation is associated with a southward shift in moisture sources. More moisture is now coming from the southern Indian Ocean, where substantial increases in sea surface temperatures and evaporation are observed. These findings highlight the complex interplay between climatic drivers, changing moisture sources, and lake Nakuru's water levels.