Separate sectoral decarbonization policies accelerate climate action but could jeopardize key sustainability targets

The Paris Agreement grants countries flexibility in designing their pathways to net-zero emissions, yet most have focused on economy-wide, cost-effective approaches without clearly defining the role of sectoral emission reductions and/or carbon dioxide removal (CDR). These blanket strategies prioritize low-cost sectors, leaving significant residual emissions and relying on uncertain, largely unproven CDR technologies to bridge the gap—an inherently risky approach. In this study, we introduce a new framework that incorporates the explicit role of sector decarbonization. We examine three variations of sector-specific policies: selective (SECT), universal (SECT-AMB), and equity-informed (SECT-FAIR), and compare them with a conventional economy-wide carbon pricing scenario (CONV), all aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. Our findings reveal that by 2060, sector-specific policies could reduce residual GHG emissions by 6–12 GtCO₂/year and lower gross CDR requirements as well by 6–12 GtCO₂/year compared to CONV. They also achieve slightly lower peak warming (by 0.006–0.01°C) and cut air pollution (PM2.5) by over 50%. However, these gains are accompanied by trade-offs, including higher transition costs, increased demand for biomass, water, uranium, and fertilizer, and potential risks to biodiversity from forest loss and land-use shifts. To maximize the climate benefits of sector-specific policies with no or limited sustainability impacts, it is crucial to carefully design and implement these policies with a focus on minimizing resource demands, protecting biodiversity, and addressing potential trade-offs, while also ensuring that they complement, rather than hinder, efforts to achieve net-zero emissions and climate stability.