A climate empirical temperature simulator, an application in Provence (France)

The importance of being able to make climate projections at the local level is fundamental because they are the ones that will serve as an input for any vulnerability study as part of a climate change adaptation plan. The techniques exist and, in France, the DRIAS portal allows you to download these projections with several models and with an 8 km x 8 km grid (called Safran grid). However, a challenge remains that the local values of these projections do not always correspond well to the data from weather stations. Corrections must be made to reduce this discrepancy. The operation is tedious, and its quality depends on choices made over the historical reference period. We have developed an empirical projection tool, based almost exclusively on historical data from weather stations. This tool is developed in this article with a comparison between the two methods.