Controls of Dynamic and Static Stress Changes and Aseismic Slip on Delayed Earthquake Triggering in Rate-and-State Simulations of the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence

Dynamic earthquake triggering often involves a time delay relative to the peak stress perturbation. In this study, we investigate the physical mechanisms responsible for delayed triggering. We compute detailed spatiotemporal changes in dynamic and static Coulomb stresses at the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest mainshock hypocenter, induced by the Mw 5.4 foreshock, using 3D dynamic rupture models. The computed stress changes are used to perturb 2D quasi-dynamic models of seismic cycles on the mainshock fault governed by rate-and-state friction. We explore multiple scenarios with varying hypocenter depths, perturbation amplitudes and timing, and different evolution laws (aging, slip, and stress-dependent). Most of the perturbed cycle models show a mainshock clock advance of several hours. Instantaneous triggering occurs only if the peak stress perturbation is comparable to the strength excess during quasi-static nucleation. While both aging and slip laws yield similar clock advances, the stress-dependent aging law results in a systematically smaller clock advance. The sign of the stress perturbation in regions of accelerating slip controls whether the mainshock is advanced or delayed. In these models, mainshocks can be triggered even when static stress changes do not favor rupture at the future mainshock hypocenter, due to stress transfer from the foreshock sequence. Our results suggest that the Ridgecrest mainshock fault was already on the verge of runaway rupture and that both foreshocks and aseismic deformation may have contributed to earthquake triggering.