Trend Analysis of Seasonal Temperature in the Al-Bardi region, Northeastern Libya

Abstract: This study investigates seasonal temperature trends in the Al-Bardī region, northeastern Libya, to identify potential climate change over recent decades. Due to limited local meteorological data, NASA POWER's 2-meter temperature records were used. Three statistical tools were applied: the Mann-Kendall test, simple linear regression, and first difference method. Findings from the Mann-Kendall test reveal statistically significant warming trends in both maximum and average temperatures during spring and autumn, indicating a clear signal of climate warming in transitional seasons. In contrast, summer and winter exhibited no significant trends, suggesting a relative thermal stability during these periods. The observed decline in spring minimum temperatures may reflect increased nighttime variability, potentially driven by changes in cloud cover or humidity—factors that contribute to a wider diurnal temperature range. Simple linear regression confirmed that spring experienced the most pronounced warming, while the first-difference method highlighted sharp fluctuations in maximum temperatures and irregular patterns in minimum temperatures, underscoring potential exposure to extreme climate events. This study enhances the understanding of local climate dynamics in an understudied region and provides valuable insights for agriculture, water resource management, and environmental planning in the context of ongoing climate change.