Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C

Glaciers adapt slowly to changing climatic conditions, resulting in long-term changes in their mass with implications for sea level rise and water supply, even if the climate were to stabilize. Using eight glacier evolution models, we simulate global glacier evolution over multi-centennial timescales, allowing glaciers to equilibrate with climate under various constant global temperature scenarios. We estimate glaciers globally will lose 39% of their mass, relative to 2020, corresponding to a global mean sea-level rise of 113 mm even if temperatures stabilized at present-day conditions. Under the +1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement, more than twice as much global glacier mass remains at equilibration (53% vs. 24%) compared to the mass projected under the warming level resulting from current policies (+2.7°C by 2100 above pre-industrial). Our findings stress the need for stringent mitigation policies to ensure long-term preservation of glaciers around the globe.