Preferences for Peace between Ukraine and Russia: Experimental Evidence from Transatlantic Elites

Relations between the US and its European partners are at a post-World War II low. What impact will this ongoing rift have on the settlement of the Russo-Ukrainian War? We offer original experimental evidence from a conjoint ‘scenario exercise’ run with 53 attendees of the highly exclusive Munich Security Conference (MSC) in 2025 (n = 147 unique choice task answers). Our experiment presented randomized settlement scenarios that differed across six key issues. MSC participants – whom we use as proxies for ‘traditional transatlantic security elites’ more generally – largely aligned with Ukraine’s stance on security guarantees, territorial claims, and reconstruction, but showed flexibility on sanctions relief and war crimes prosecution, suggesting room for negotiation with the US. Our evidence indicates a “zone of possible agreement” of all parties’ views around Ukrainian EU membership. Moreover, we demonstrate the utility of running conjoint experiments on real-world issues as ‘scenario exercises’ with political elites, both for research and as engaging scenario simulations for decisionmakers.