Partisan Wishful Thinking in Polarized Times

Partisans engage in “wishful thinking” ahead of elections, being more likely to expect their party to win than lose at the polls. This research asserts that wishful thinking is endemic to the current polarized era in US politics. In today’s presidential races, nine-in-ten voters expect their preferred candidate to triumph, a sharp increase from just two decades ago. Drawing on the American National Election Study’s 2016-2024 panel survey, I show that partisan animosity (or out-party hate) is likely to be causally linked to high electoral hopes, and using surveys from 1980 to the present, I show that it can explain a sizable share of the increase in wishful thinking over time. Finally, I explore reciprocity in this relationship. An analysis of ANES data from presidential elections between 1996 to 2024 finds that high expectations lead to greater post-election animosity among an election’s losers, independently of their pre-election attitudes.