Affective Polarization in the Face of Crisis: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic and De-Escalation Policies in Spain

Previous research on Affective Polarization (AP) has often overlooked short-term variations due to external shocks and crises, which have significant implications for political stability, social cohesion, and democratic resilience. This paper leverages three waves of a panel survey conducted yearly in Spain to examine the evolution of AP during the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigate whether the pandemic had polarizing effects on the electorate and find that AP intensified primarily among individuals with extreme evaluations of the government’s management, as well as among those who perceived the pandemic as a threat to the country's economy. Additionally, drawing from the literature on affective depolarization and using a Difference-in-Differences design, we identify a significant seven-percentage-point reduction in aggregate AP levels following the implementation of COVID-19 de-escalation measures. Our analyses indicate that reductions in perceived left-right and issue-based polarization mediated this effect. These findings underscore the complexity of AP dynamics during crises, showing how aggregate depolarization can occur alongside individual-level polarization, and emphasize the importance of short-term factors in shaping political polarization.