Predicting Variability in State Conscientiousness and Neuroticism: Application of the FFF in Personality State Research

A person’s behavioral patterns reflect a relatively stable trajectory over time (known as personality traits) while still varying from moment to moment (known as personality states). Previous research has established that mean states and trajectories of Conscientiousness and Neuroticism have important real-world influences; however, this work has neglected the degree to which people may flexibly vary in these traits. This study investigated the relationships between personality traits, states, and state variability using ecological momentary assessment. A general population sample (n = 78; 64% female) completed baseline measures and shorter daily surveys (k = 40) measuring Conscientiousness, Neuroticism, and Personality Dysfunction. Three key findings emerged: (1) Baseline personality traits were significantly related to the average of corresponding personality states, (2) Trait Neuroticism, Negative Affectivity, Disinhibition, and both Neuroticism and Conscientiousness state means predicted variability in state Neuroticism over time, while trait Conscientiousness and Disinhibition were unrelated to variability in state Conscientiousness, and (3) Participants demonstrated limited ability to predict their own state variability, with greater accuracy for predicting Neuroticism (particularly Sadness) than Conscientiousness. These findings highlight the importance of examining not only mean levels of personality states but also variability patterns, suggesting that different personality domains may have distinct relationships with state variability. The study extends current understanding of how trait estimates play out in real life, clarifying what trait assessments predict in the dynamic expression of personality in daily contexts.