Opportunities to balance urbanization, climate change, and nature conservation policy agendas via nature-based solutions: A case study of Hong Kong

Urban areas face challenges in jointly addressing the global climate change and nature loss crises amidst the pursuit of socioeconomic development agendas. This trade-off prompts the need to explore sensitive intervention points that can be leveraged for positive climate and nature conservation outcomes, namely the implementation of nature-based solutions that provide synergistic benefits for climate and nature. Using Hong Kong as a case study, this study employs geospatial approaches to model the carbon storage, natural habitat, and climate risk trade-offs under five land use change scenarios for 2030. The results show that Hong Kong would suffer large reductions in climate mitigation benefits if new real estate developments and expansion plans are implemented, compromising natural habitats and the ecosystem services they provide. Several key areas are identified where urban development should be avoided to maximize these future benefits and minimize risk exposure, namely Mai Po, Chek Lap Kok, and Sai Kung. Furthermore, the results highlight opportunities to implement nature-based solutions to enhance existing carbon stores in natural habitats, reshape built infrastructure for nature connectivity, and adapt coastlines to mitigate climate risks. This study provides an evidence foundation for the implementation of nature-based solutions to bridge climate and nature policy agendas in Hong Kong and other urban environments.