The Organizational Demography of the U.S. Public Sector, 2002 – 2022

I point estimate tenure table models (TTMs) spanning 2002 to 2022 for jobs in the U.S. state and local government, federal government, and private sector using the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and biennial Job Tenure Supplements of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Decompositions indicate that most of the public sector (federal government) job stability advantage relative to the private sector (state and local governments) arises from lower job separation hazard soon after hiring rather than later in the employment relationship. Multiple decrement TTMs estimated using the CPS Displaced Workers’ Supplement isolate the effect of job displacements on public-private differences in job stability. Job displacements were only a modest contributor to public-private differences in expected job tenure at hiring.