Refugee Proximity and Support for Citizenship Exclusion in Africa

How does living near refugees shape citizens' preferences over who may join the political community? In Africa, host to one-third of the world's refugees, protracted displacement has generated growing calls for pathways to legal membership. I theorize that proximity fosters a distinct form of protectiveness: citizens who anticipate that refugees may claim membership become more restrictive about citizenship itself, without becoming more hostile toward refugees. Using geo-referenced data on over 1,200 refugee communities and nearly 40,000 Afrobarometer respondents across 25 countries, I find that citizens living closer to refugee sites are more likely to oppose birthright citizenship and naturalization. Yet proximity does not heighten dislike of immigrants as neighbors, fear of crime, insecurity, national identification, or material hardship. Two placebo tests using distance to future refugee sites and to refugee sites in neighboring countries address selection concerns. Focus groups in Tanzania illustrate how citizens reason over anticipated membership claims.