The Effects of Fare-Free Transit on the Travel Behavior of Older Adults

Many cities worldwide provide fare subsidies to encourage transit ridership and mitigate the negative externalities associated with car use. Yet, there is limited evidence on the extent to which these policies promote shifts in transportation mode from automobiles to public transit, especially in cities from low-income countries. Here, we leverage a large-scale quasi-natural experiment to examine the causal impact of a fare-free transit policy on the travel behavior of older adults in a developing country with substantial public transit use. To identify the causal impact of free transit on travel behavior, we employ a regression discontinuity design that takes advantage of the Brazilian eligibility rule for free transit which is based on an age threshold that varies by sex and city. Drawing on data from 11 household travel surveys in seven metropolitan areas representing 25% of the Brazilian population, we compare the number of trips and travel times by transport mode, as well as vehicle ownership by individuals who are just above and just below the age thresholds for transit fare exemption. Our results show that fare-free transit increases transit ridership among older adults by approximately 9.4% (se = 4.0 p.p.) while making these trips shorter by 8.2%. However, this increase in transit usage results mainly from the substitution of walking trips, which decrease by 9.3% (se = 3.4 pp). We found no significant impact on car usage or vehicle ownership. These findings suggest that fare-free transit is not an effective policy to reduce private car use and its associated externalities, even in low-income contexts with high public transit usage.