Re-evaluating Amarna: A Likelihood-Based Assessment of 18th-Dynasty Genealogies from STR Evidence

The genealogy of Egypt’s late 18th Dynasty remains contested, especially the identities and kin ties of Akhenaten, Nefertiti, Tutankhamun, and the mummies KV55, KV35YL, KV21A and KV21B. Using the eight STR loci published by Hawass et al. (2010), we formalize leading scholarly pedigrees (Hawass, Dodson, Phizackerley, Bommas, Tawfik) and closely related variants, then evaluate them with a transparent likelihood framework designed to be readable to non-statisticians. We separate two questions: (Run I) which overall pedigree best fits the STR data when KV21B is left unidentified; and (Run II) conditional on placing KV21B inside the Akhenaten–Nefertiti nuclear family, whether she fits better as Nefertiti or as another daughter of Akhenaten and Nefertiti. Across founder assumptions ranging from maximal endogamy to unrelated founders, Run I yields a stable result: the “sibling-parent” architecture in which both parents of Tutankhamun are children of Amenhotep III and Tiye fits the data best; within that structure, osteological age-at-death evidence for KV55 excludes identification with Akhenaten, pointing instead to Smenkhkare (Bommas model). Run II shows that, within the same best-fitting architecture, KV21B’s label (Nefertiti vs. Daughter) depends on founder assumptions and is not decided by STRs alone; only under the most agnostic founder setting do the data clearly prefer “Daughter.” Two additional observations emerge: (i) endogamy signals in KV21A and the KV62 fetuses make a fully unrelated-founders scenario unlikely, and (ii) multi-locus sharing between Amenhotep III and Yuya supports a close maternal tie long suspected for Mutemwia. We conclude with a “most likely” working pedigree that integrates these genetic and osteological constraints and outline targeted tests that could confirm or refine it.