Has the iron fist against criminal gangs really worked in El Salvador?

Violence due to organised crime takes a heavy social and economic toll on many Latin America and the Caribbean countries. In less than a decade, El Salvador, sadly known for the activities of criminal gangs, went from having one the highest homicide rates in the world to being the second safest country in the Americas after Canada. Using a regression discontinuity in time design, we find that the two flagship extraordinarily tough criminal policies of Nayib Bukele's government against criminal gangs diminished the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants by about 45 points between 2019 and 2024, accounting for almost 90% of the reduction over the period analysed.