What We Think Others Think and Do About Climate Change: A Multi-Country Test of Pluralistic Ignorance and Public Consensus Messaging

Most people believe in human-caused climate change, yet this public consensus can be collectively underestimated (pluralistic ignorance). Across two studies using primary (n = 3,653 adult participants; 11 countries) and secondary (ns = 60,230 and 22,496 adult participants; 55 countries) data, we tested (a) the generalizability of pluralistic ignorance about climate change beliefs, (b) effects of a public consensus intervention on climate action, and (c) cultural tightness-looseness as a country-level predictor of pluralistic ignorance. In Study 1, people across 11 countries underestimated the prevalence of pro-climate views by at least 7.5% (90% CrI [5.1, 10.1]) in Indonesia and up to 20.8% (90% CrI [18.2, 23.4]) in Brazil. Providing information about this public consensus on climate change was largely ineffective, except for a slight increase in willingness to express one’s pro-climate opinion (δ = 0.05; 90% CrI [ 0.02, 0.11]). In Study 2, pluralistic ignorance about willingness to contribute financially to fight climate change was slightly more pronounced in looser than tighter cultures, highlighting the particular need for pluralistic ignorance research in these countries.