Running in Context: Marginalization, Political Ambition, and Candidate Emergence

Does the electoral context shape the candidate supply among marginalized groups, and if so, how? Women, racialized groups, and youth have had lower political ambition and candidacy rates largely due to socioeconomic and political marginalization, yet the increased salience of such marginalization within electoral contexts has paralleled a surge in candidates from these groups. I argue that, alongside supply- and demand-side determinants, contexts marked by the salience of identity-based marginalization act as catalysts for political ambition and candidate emergence among marginalized groups. Survey experiments and a quasi-experimental analysis of U.S. state legislative elections demonstrate that the salience of marginalization within electoral contexts increases marginalized individuals' interest in running, nascent political ambition, and candidate emergence. Explicit public support for inclusion further enhances these effects, and key mechanisms include self-perceptions of qualifications, political efficacy, and electability. This research uncovers context as a new determinant of interest in office, shaping the candidate supply.