Running in Context: Marginalization, Political Ambition, and Candidate Emergence

Does the electoral context shape the candidate supply among marginalized groups, and if so, how? Women, racialized groups, and youth have had lower political ambition and candidacy rates largely due to socioeconomic and political marginalization, yet the increased salience of such marginalization within electoral contexts has paralleled a surge in candidates from these groups. I argue that, alongside supply- and demand-side determinants, contexts marked by the salience of identity-based marginalization can catalyze political ambition and candidate emergence among marginalized groups. Survey experiments replicated across multiple U.S. samples show that making marginalization salient, especially when coupled with demands for inclusion, boosts marginalized individuals' interest in running and nascent political ambition. Exploratory evidence points to self-perceptions of qualifications, political efficacy, and electability as relevant mechanisms. Observational evidence from state legislative elections suggests these effects extend to real-world candidate emergence. This research identifies contextual factors as a new determinant shaping the candidate supply.