More a Swell than a Ripple: The Persistent Impact of the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on Voter Turnout

We analyze the impact of natural disasters on political participation by studying theeffect of exposure to the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami on the subsequent turnout of 16,000Swedes. Previous work is relatively scarce and has not addressed the possibility thatdisaster exposure is a compound treatment: natural disasters can reduce voter turnout dueto destruction and economic disruption, but they may also motivate political participation.Using unique population-wide registry data that identify the exposed, we are able toisolate the individual-level motivational effect of natural disaster exposure. We uncover apersistent increase in voting among those impacted—potentially due to dissatisfaction withthe government’s response or post-traumatic growth, with evidence supporting both. Ourresearch advances understanding by providing credible estimates of the tsunami’s enduringeffects on voter turnout. By focusing on Swedes abroad during the event, we exclude localdisaster impacts and highlight the individual’s motivation to participate politically.