Structural and Cyclical Unemployment and Redistribution Support in Europe: The Moderating Role of Welfare State Size

This paper investigates the contextual effects of unemployment rates on support for income redistribution in 27 European countries, focusing on unemployment´s cross-sectional and longitudinal effects. By distinguishing between structural and cyclical unemployment, we provide a novel analysis of how these factors influence pro-redistributive attitudes. The three-level within-between random-effects models estimated using nine rounds of the European Social Survey demonstrate a robust positive cross-sectional association between structural unemployment and redistribution support. Countries with higher structural unemployment, particularly post-communist and Mediterranean countries, exhibit stronger pro-redistributive publics. However, no general longitudinal effect of cyclical unemployment on redistribution support is found across Europe. Building on the “growth to limits” hypothesis, we identify that the welfare state size moderates the association between cyclical unemployment and redistribution support. In large welfare states, higher unemployment during economic downturns correlates with decreased support for redistribution. In contrast, smaller welfare states display no significant association or a countercyclical pattern.