An Agent-Based Model of Inter-Species Interactions in Agroforestry Systems

With the increasing frequency of extreme climate events and a growing public consciousness regarding global warming and the importance of ecosystem services, the stage is set for transformative approaches in agriculture. Agriculture is now a dominant force behind many environmental threats including excessive deforestation, loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, chemical pollution, and contributions to greenhouse gasses and global warming. These externalities can no longer be ignored. Agroforestry, the strategic integration of trees and shrubs into crop and livestock systems, presents a promising avenue towards a sustainable and resilient agricultural future. This practice advocates for a multifaceted food system that draws inspiration from natural ecosystems, emphasizing complexity, diversity, and recycling. By mimicking natural processes, agroforestry aims to maintain productive capacity while enhancing various ecosystem services, including soil health, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration. To understand and optimize these complex systems, Agent-Based Models can simulate key attributes of individual species, revealing emergent collective patterns that may inform management strategies and policy decisions. In a well-calibrated model, the predicted emergent behaviours of the models can help with the planning of the most appropriate architectures for the system, with the goal of preserving and enhancing biodiversity. Our Agent Based Model simulation represents a first step in capturing emerging properties at the population level. These may include for instance soil changes and synergistic growth patterns, which are relevant for guiding the management of the system. Our simulations demonstrate that with proper management, soil organic matter can increase 2-fold over 10 years while maintaining harvest yields above monoculture levels. Models can help to balance the concomitant goals of maximizing economic outcomes while promoting the self-sustainable restoration of biodiversity and soil fertility.