Exploring Metacognitive Inaccuracies and Socio-Cognitive Polarization in Conspiratorial Beliefs

Those who believe conspiracy theories often exhibit reasoning patterns characterized by metacognitive inaccuracies and perceptions of patterns between unrelated events. This research investigates reasoning processes underlying conspiracy beliefs, focusing on two metacognitive inaccuracies in problem solving: false feeling of solution imminence and presumption of accuracy. Two studies were conducted. In study 1 (which extends George & Mielicki's, 2023 findings), participants were presented with solvable and unsolvable problems to compare predicted versus actual performance revealing that individuals with higher false feelings of solution imminence exhibited stronger conspiracy beliefs. In study 2 we assessed presumption of accuracy after participants claimed to have found a problem solution, showing that higher presumption of accuracy was also linked to greater endorsement of conspiracy beliefs. Importantly, this study introduced Socio-Cognitive Polarization (SCP)—encompassing xenophobia, absolutism, and conservatism—as a critical mediating factor. SCP amplified the effects of metacognitive inaccuracies on conspiracy beliefs, situating these cognitive patterns within socio-political contexts. Our findings provide novel evidence for the relationship between conspiracy beliefs and metacognitive inaccuracies, highlighting the interconnected role of cognitive processes and SCP in shaping conspiratorial thinking.