Longitudinal associations between trauma, bullying victimization and conduct problems in children and adolescents: Evidence from Brazilian High Risk Cohort Study

Background: Empirical observations consistently demonstrate heightened levels of trauma and bullying victimization among children and adolescents with conduct problems. However, most of this evidence is generated in high-income countries and little is known about the development of conduct problems in low- and middle-income countries, which are characterized by elevated risks of threat and deprivation. Methods: To explore conduct problems development in a high-risk setting, we used data from 2,511 children and young people (aged 6 - 23 years) enrolled in the Brazilian High Risk Cohort Study. Caregiver reports were used to assess developmental risk factors and conduct problems across three waves of data collection. A Random Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel Model was applied. Results: Both trauma at T1 (β = .08, SE = .22, p = .024) and bullying victimization at T1 (β = .08, SE = .12, p = .016) predicted conduct problems at T2. Gender disparities were also observed: while males showed a consistent increase in conduct problems at T3 following trauma exposure at T2 (β = .14, SE = .46, p = .031), females demonstrated a decrease (β = -.26, SE = .65, p = .003). Conclusions: Our study highlights longitudinal associations between trauma, bullying victimisation and conduct problems, with differences across genders. These findings emphasize the need for a stronger focus on child and adolescent mental health problems in Brazil, particularly targeting males, as well as in other low- and middle-income countries more generally. Moreover, collaborative research with carefully coordinated methods is essential to identify global and context-specific mechanisms involved in the development of conduct problems.