Nationalist Focal Events and Anti-Minority Violence -- How Soldier Funerals Spark Ethnic Riots in Turkey

This study examines the role of soldier funerals as triggering events for anti-minority violence in the form of ethnic riots. Focusing on a most-likely setting, anti-Syrian riots in Turkey, we argue that soldier funerals as nationalist spectacles and highly visible rituals of collective grief increase out-group hostility, serving as nationalist focal events for retributive violence against minority members. Combining mixed-effects logistic regression models with a sharp Regression Discontinuity in Time (RDiT) design, we analyze fine-grained geo-coded data on Turkish soldier funerals and anti-Syrian riots in Turkey between 2016 and 2024. Our findings reveal a increase in the likelihood of ethnic riots in the immediate aftermath of soldier funerals. Qualitative process tracing of a representative case, the 2020 Kahramanmaraş riots further supports our findings. We contribute to the understanding of immediate triggers as proximate causes of ethnic violence, highlighting the importance of nationalist focal events in shaping intergroup conflict.