The great American car crime decline

The vehicle theft rate in the United States declined 80 percent between 1990 and2020. Remarkably, this remains unexplained. This study examines historical evidenceincluding reports to Congress plus automobile industry data from the FederalRegister. Legislation incentivised security improvements that were fitted to high-riskvehicles from the late 1980s. Analysis of the industry data finds that theft of vehicleswith electronic engine immobilizers declined 80 percent relative to a matchedcontrol group and theft of new secure vehicles declined before older vehicles. Theftdeclined gradually over the years as secure vehicles permeated the national vehiclefleet, the prolonged decline reflecting the arms race between manufacturers’responses and offender effort to circumvent security. The study concludes that theelectronic engine immobilizer caused the great American car crime decline. If thisinduced declining crime more generally, the electronic engine immobilizer may bethe most important crime prevention device of recent history.