Racial Threat in Public Social Spaces

We examine the electoral effects of exposure to ethnic diversity in public social spaces. We study the case of public swimming pools in Germany, where intergroup relations have become increasingly politicized in recent years. Our empirical analysis combines (i) information on the geolocation of all public pools in Germany, (ii) a high-frequency panel survey of more than 240,000 voters, and (iii) a novel survey on threat perceptions in public pools. Using a difference-in-differences design that leverages the seasonality of outdoor swimming pools for causal identification, we estimate that exposure to ethnic diversity in public pools increases far-right support by about 0.8 percentage points. Additional panel analyses suggest that these results are driven by an increase in the issue salience of immigration relative to taxes and redistribution. Our findings lend credence to the racial threat hypothesis in politicized public social spaces that do not meet Allport's conditions for positive intergroup contact.