More Bullets, More Doves? The Impact of Violence on Preferences for Peace

Exposure to violence plays a crucial role in shaping political behavior and preferences in the aftermath of conflicts. Previous studies find that citizens respond in different and often contrasting ways to violence exposure. In some cases, higher degrees of conflict generate more hawkish preferences and higher levels of political participation, while in other instances conflict exposure has the opposite effect. To explain this variation, we propose a two-dimensional framework of analysis that takes into consideration the type and level of an individual's exposure to violence. We test our two-dimensional framework in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. Regarding the level of violence, we show that in areas with high levels of conflict, there was more collective support for pacific solutions. In terms of the type of violence, we find that direct victims of the conflict are less likely to support negotiations than non-victims. The theory and results have important implications for researchers and policy-makers alike.