On cliodynamic realism - Is there such a thing as the “dynamics” of history?

We investigate here the scientific realism of cliodynamics, a novel research program in the social sciences which aims to investigate historical dynamics through dynamical systems and complex systems methodology. In particular, we introduce the argument that dynamical models of historical dynamics lack grounding, due to the fundamental role of contextuality in social and cultural change. This argument should cast doubt on the notion that cliodynamics’ capacity to explain or predict historical dynamics are in any meaningful way beyond those of established social scientific frameworks, although we do not find reason to invalidate cliodynamics as a research program. We propose an alternative framework for the naturalistic description of historical dynamics, and argue for the fundamental importance of critical realism about social scientific concepts.