No Backlash to Value-Aligned Policies: Reassessing Public Responses to High-Profile Immigration Reforms

Do salient pro-immigration reforms provoke public backlash? Despite widespread beliefs that such reforms would incite counterproductive opposition, evidence on immigration policy changes' impact on voter attitudes remains ambiguous. We address this issue comprehensively using an unexpected-event-during-survey design, assessing the effects of major recent U.S. immigration policies on incumbent evaluations and policy preferences across all available representative surveys. Specifically, we examine verifiably high-profile policy announcements with clear executive responsibility attributions, including pro-immigration measures (Obama's DACA and DAPA) and anti-immigration measures (Trump's "Muslim" and "Green Card" bans). Our analysis reveals neither DACA nor DAPA triggered immediate backlash against immigration or the incumbent. At the same time, immigration bans had no effects or may have even increased public support of immigration. These findings suggest policymakers might have limited cause for concern regarding public backlash against value-aligned policies, even on contentious issues like (unauthorized) immigration.