Most probable origin and statistical attribution of the major causes of global mean sea level anomaly and rising tides since the 20th century

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Abstract

The origin of the anomalous global sea level rise (SLR) since the last century is highly controversial and not established. The observed increase of high tides and decrease of low tides in many coastal areas around the world imply that some crucial physical mechanism that drives the rising sea levels may be overlooked. The relative contribution of polar migration, obliquity change, lunar acceleration, Earth spin and sea surface temperature on sea level was estimated using multiple regression. A very high relative contribution of the polar motion (49.4%) on the mean sea level rise, followed by planetary obliquity (46.7%) and a secondary contribution of lunar acceleration (3.9%) was found. Sea surface temperature and earth spin rate showed negative correlations with sea level rise. The annual changes of the polar motion, planetary obliquity and lunar acceleration appear to be the dominant physical mechanisms behind the SLR problem. These factors are largely driven by strong earthquakes. The rising oceanic tides in the last century up to the present is largely due to North Pole migration. Apparently, the polar motion and North Pole precession are possibly caused by the increased eccentricity of the lunar orbit through changes in the lunar distance and lunar acceleration.

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