Ability or availability? Exponential growth estimations during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic

In the current study, we show that Exponential Growth Estimation (EGU) is susceptible to cognitive biases. Three pre-registered experiments (total N = 2,836) revealed that EGU varies depending on whether the estimation concerns coronavirus infection or recovery. This discrepancy is not linked to emotional or behavioral factors like virus concerns or general anxiety (Experiments 1–3). Additionally, no significant difference was found in EGU when estimating exponential financial gains versus losses (Experiment 2), indicating the observed bias is not due to framing effects but rather the availability heuristic. The bias is more pronounced in individuals exposed to discussions about exponential coronavirus infection growth, particularly through liberal news media (Experiment 3). The influence of news outlets on EGU highlights the need for media and global leaders to consider this vulnerability, especially when relying on public understanding of exponential growth to address global crises with significant human impact.