Money Isn't Everything: When Disaster Relief Fails to Sway Voters

Does the public reward incumbents for relief aid after extreme weather events? Despite the urgency of the climate crisis, relatively little is known about the political consequences of disaster relief globally. This paper argues that voters are unlikely to reward relief in contexts where responsibility for disasters is unclear. The argument is tested with granular data from Brazil on public opinion and electoral behavior. Cross-national surveys show Brazilians are more uncertain about responsibility compared to those in 17 other countries in the Americas. A panel analysis of public opinion reveals that receiving aid does little to increase trust in politicians or influence vote intention. Mayoral elections are then analyzed using matching and difference-in-differences methods, revealing no significant electoral rewards for relief aid. In the context of climate politics, the results suggest that politicians have little electoral incentive to respond effectively to disasters in settings of low clarity of responsibility.