Electoral Consequences of Reincorporation Strategies in Post-conflict Scenarios

Maintaining political stability is one of the most critical challenges in post-peaceagreement contexts. However, some domestic conflict termination strategies such asDisarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration programs (DDR) inevitably lead toscenarios that can risk the legitimacy and legal continuity of the peace process. Iexplore this relationship in Colombia’s post-conflict scenario, by looking at how theinstallation of relocation centers of former Farc guerrilla members in the aftermathof the 2016 agreement affected the support for parties in favor of the negotiation.Using a difference-in-difference design and electoral data from city council electionsin 2015 and 2019, I find evidence that in regions where these centers were built,the electoral support for these parties decreased at a higher rate than the nationaltrend. Moreover, I find that the electoral backlash was stronger in regions where thefuture of the centers was uncertain – by the time of the election – than in regionswhere the ex-combatants were already allowed to stay permanently. These findingshave important implications for policy makers in post-conflict and peace buildingscenarios.