Do Changing Climate Attitudes Undermine or Reinforce Political Support Among Youth? Evidence from a Salience Shift in Germany

Can unmet climate demands erode political support? This study examines how rising pro-climate preferences, particularly among youth, affect political support under conditions of heightened salience. Leveraging panel data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (2016–2022), the analysis captures the salience shift triggered by the Fridays for Future (FFF) movement. Results show that climate change became a more decisive dimension in younger voters’ electoral calculus following FFF, and that within-person shifts toward stronger pro-climate views predict declining political support. However, a post-FFF decline in political support does not materialise, instead, FFF may have buffered dissatisfaction by fostering a sense of efficacy and responsiveness. The findings highlight how salience, age-based vulnerability, and focal events shape democratic evaluations, suggesting that perceived inaction on climate change can undermine political legitimacy, but that collective mobilisation may also protect it.