Climate Risks and Migration Intentions
Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
Is climate change a significant driver of individual migration intentions? We contribute to this debate by: 1) offering a causal inference perspective on a decision typically influenced by numerous unobserved factors, 2) distinguishing between climate as a push and pull factor, and 3) testing the role of labor market transferability as a constraint on climate-induced migration. Using priming and choice-based conjoint experiments in Nigeria, our findings reveal limited average effects of climate risks on international migration, challenging some of the most apocalyptic forecasts of climate-induced displacement. However, personal exposure to sudden events like floods significantly increases international migration among those working in agriculture. Floods also have modest but broader effects on regional migration within Nigeria, particularly for individuals with limited labor market options. Climate considerations substantially influence destination choices as pull factors, but economic and political motivations remain stronger.
