The Accountability Amplification Hypothesis Fails: Digital Tools Do Not Improve Governance Across Institutional Contexts
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
This article is not in any list yet, why not save it to one of your lists.Abstract
The theory that digital tools amplify citizen accountability to improve governance is a cornerstone of modern public administration. Yet large-scale empirical evidence for this relationship remains scarce and often ignores contextual differences. An analysis of a 15-country, 25-year panel dataset tests a moderated mediation hypothesis across High-Income, BRICS, and Low-Income nations. The findings are stark. The hypothesized mediation effect of Digital Enablement on the relationship between Institutional Accountability and Government Effectiveness is not statistically significant in any subgroup (p > .35). This robust null result challenges the prevailing technological-optimistic narrative. It suggests the theoretical link between digital tools and enhanced governance is either fundamentally mis-specified or contextually dependent in ways current theories do not capture. The research concludes that the impact of civic technology is not universal but is instead shaped by pre-existing institutional capacity.
