Impact of January 2021 curfew measures on SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 circulation in France
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Abstract
Following the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant, social distancing was strengthened in France in January 2021. Using a two-strain mathematical model calibrated on genomic surveillance, we estimated that curfew measures allowed hospitalisations to plateau by decreasing transmission of the historical strains while B.1.1.7 continued to grow. School holidays appear to have further slowed down progression in February. Without progressively strengthened social distancing, a rapid surge of hospitalisations is expected, despite the foreseen increase in vaccination rhythm.
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SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.14.21251708: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study has limitations. It considered the strengthening of social distancing, but not stronger measures as a lockdown. Increased transmissibility was assumed from prior estimates in the UK1,2,16, compatible with those from …
SciScore for 10.1101/2021.02.14.21251708: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study has limitations. It considered the strengthening of social distancing, but not stronger measures as a lockdown. Increased transmissibility was assumed from prior estimates in the UK1,2,16, compatible with those from other countries6. Similar estimates from French data will help update projections, however validation with the second genomic survey already suggests a good agreement with assumptions. We did not consider additional differences between the variant and the historical strain, such as increased severity. Other variants were not considered here, as estimated at a lower penetration, but their circulation will concur to the expected case surge.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
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