Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England, 16 November to 5 February

  1. Daniel J Grint
  2. Kevin Wing
  3. Elizabeth Williamson
  4. Helen I McDonald
  5. Krishnan Bhaskaran
  6. David Evans
  7. Stephen JW Evans
  8. Alex J Walker
  9. George Hickman
  10. Emily Nightingale
  11. Anna Schultze
  12. Christopher T Rentsch
  13. Chris Bates
  14. Jonathan Cockburn
  15. Helen J Curtis
  16. Caroline E Morton
  17. Sebastian Bacon
  18. Simon Davy
  19. Angel YS Wong
  20. Amir Mehrkar
  21. Laurie Tomlinson
  22. Ian J Douglas
  23. Rohini Mathur
  24. Paula Blomquist
  25. Brian MacKenna
  26. Peter Ingelsby
  27. Richard Croker
  28. John Parry
  29. Frank Hester
  30. Sam Harper
  31. Nicholas J DeVito
  32. Will Hulme
  33. John Tazare
  34. Ben Goldacre
  35. Liam Smeeth
  36. Rosalind M Eggo

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Abstract

The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant of concern (VOC) is increasing in prevalence across Europe. Accurate estimation of disease severity associated with this VOC is critical for pandemic planning. We found increased risk of death for VOC compared with non-VOC cases in England (hazard ratio: 1.67; 95% confidence interval: 1.34–2.09; p < 0.0001). Absolute risk of death by 28 days increased with age and comorbidities. This VOC has potential to spread faster with higher mortality than the pandemic to date.

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  1. Version published to 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.11.2100256
  2. ScreenIT

    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.03.04.21252528: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    Institutional Review Board Statementnot detected.
    Randomizationnot detected.
    Blindingnot detected.
    Power Analysisnot detected.
    Sex as a biological variablenot detected.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code.

    Results from LimitationRecognizer: An explicit section about the limitations of the techniques employed in this study was not found. We encourage authors to address study limitations.

    Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.

    Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.

    Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.

    Results from rtransparent:
    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    About SciScore

    SciScore is an automated tool that is designed to assist expert reviewers by finding and presenting formulaic information scattered throughout a paper in a standard, easy to digest format. SciScore checks for the presence and correctness of RRIDs (research resource identifiers), and for rigor criteria such as sex and investigator blinding. For details on the theoretical underpinning of rigor criteria and the tools shown here, including references cited, please follow this link.

  3. Version published to 10.1101/2021.03.04.21252528 on medRxiv