Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020
This article has been Reviewed by the following groups
Discuss this preprint
Start a discussion What are Sciety discussions?Listed in
- Evaluated articles (ScreenIT)
Abstract
On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.
Article activity feed
-
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study is not free from limitations. First, laboratory tests by PCR were conducted focusing on symptomatic cases especially at the early phase of the quarantine. If asymptomatic cases where missed as a result of this, it …
SciScore for 10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866: (What is this?)
Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.
Table 1: Rigor
Institutional Review Board Statement not detected. Randomization not detected. Blinding not detected. Power Analysis not detected. Sex as a biological variable not detected. Table 2: Resources
No key resources detected.
Results from OddPub: We did not detect open data. We also did not detect open code. Researchers are encouraged to share open data when possible (see Nature blog).
Results from LimitationRecognizer: We detected the following sentences addressing limitations in the study:Our study is not free from limitations. First, laboratory tests by PCR were conducted focusing on symptomatic cases especially at the early phase of the quarantine. If asymptomatic cases where missed as a result of this, it would mean we have underestimated the asymptomatic proportion. Second, it is worth noting that the data of passengers and crews employed in our analysis is not a random sample from the general population. Considering that most of the passengers are 60 years and older, the nature of this age distribution may lead to underestimation if older individuals tend to experience more symptoms. An age standardized asymptomatic proportion would be more appropriate in that case. Third, the presence of symptoms in cases with COVID-19 may correlate with other factors unrelated to age including prior health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, immunosuppression. Therefore, more detailed data documenting the baseline health of the individuals including the presence of underlying diseases or comorbidities would be useful to remove the bias in estimates of the asymptomatic proportion. In summary, we have estimated the proportion of asymptomatic cases among individuals who have tested positive for novel COVID-19 along with the times of infection of confirmed cases onboard the Princess Cruises Ship after adjusting for the delay in symptom onset and right-censoring of the observations.
Results from TrialIdentifier: No clinical trial numbers were referenced.
Results from Barzooka: We did not find any issues relating to the usage of bar graphs.
Results from JetFighter: We did not find any issues relating to colormaps.
Results from rtransparent:- Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- Thank you for including a funding statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
- No protocol registration statement was detected.
-
-
