Estimating national excess mortality from subnational data: application to Argentina

  1. Ariel Karlinsky

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Abstract

This paper presents a method to estimate excess mortality where national data are missing for some or all of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic period, but subnational data exist, such as in Argentina. By making use of the stability of the regional distribution of deaths, data on deaths in Córdoba province were used to project excess deaths in Argentina from March 2020 up to the end of 2021. The number of excess deaths was estimated at 134 504, which is 14.8% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths in Argentina for the same time period.

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  1. Version published to 10.26633/rpsp.2022.19
  2. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.30.21262814v2 on medRxiv
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    SciScore for 10.1101/2021.08.30.21262814: (What is this?)

    Please note, not all rigor criteria are appropriate for all manuscripts.

    Table 1: Rigor

    NIH rigor criteria are not applicable to paper type.

    Table 2: Resources

    No key resources detected.

    Results from OddPub: Thank you for sharing your code and data.

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    • Thank you for including a conflict of interest statement. Authors are encouraged to include this statement when submitting to a journal.
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    • No protocol registration statement was detected.

    Results from scite Reference Check: We found no unreliable references.

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  4. Version published to 10.1101/2021.08.30.21262814v1 on medRxiv